Jacksonville, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

291
FXUS64 KLZK 011734
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1234 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

CURRENTLY:

As of 2:50 AM CDT, a decaying MCS is moving across the state of
Arkansas impacting the southern and eastern portions of the state
with light to moderate rainfall.

THURSDAY (Today):

An upper lvl shortwave pulse will be moving over the forecast area
through a H500 flow regime that is progged to remain nearly zonal
during the day on Thursday. A H500 cutoff low will be positioned
over Southern California with a positively-tilted trof beginning
to dig across the northern Central Plains region of the CONUS. At
the sfc, a stationary boundary is progged to move into western
Arkansas during the day on Thursday. At the sfc, southwesterly
flow is present and a forecast trend of increasing temperatures
and moisture being advected into the state will be present. The
question which raises uncertainty regarding the coverage of severe
weather will be the influence of the cloud cover and rain-cooled
air over parts of the state from the decaying MCS which is
departing the state in the form of light to moderate rainfall
which has fallen over eastern and southern Arkansas over most of
the night which may make our atmosphere more difficult to recover
from regarding instability and invoking an atmosphere conducive
for severe weather. Nonetheless, destabilization of the atmosphere
is progged across the central and southern portions of the state
as a window should present itself to later this morning into the
early afternoon hours in which the atmosphere may become unstable
once again.

Expect another day of unsettled weather. The risk for Thursday will
be a conditional threat as confidence of the exact location and
timing of potential strong to severe thunderstorm development
continues to wane with the latest short-term or CAMS guidance. The
development of thunderstorm initiation is expected across central or
southern Arkansas during Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening
and sweep eastward in the wake of the MCS that moved across the
state on Wednesday. At the current time, the Storm Prediction Center
has labeled southern Arkansas in a Slight Risk for severe weather
today; whereas, central and into northern Arkansas will maintain a
Marginal Risk for severe weather today. The main hazards with any
activity that does become severe would be damaging wind gusts and
large hail. The tornado threat is very low, but again within the
strongest bowing line segments, a brief tornado can spin-up quickly
and are usually weaker and occur quickly.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT:

An upper lvl positively-tilted trof will be digging from over the
Great Lakes region of the CONUS extending southwestward back over
the Central Plains region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a cold front
will move through the state from northwest sweeping southeastward
during the day on Friday.

Expect a second day of unsettled weather on Friday as the Storm
Prediction Center has placed the southeastern 3/4ths of Arkansas in
a Marginal Risk for severe weather. The main threats on Friday
across Arkansas would be in the form of isolated damaging wind gusts
and isolated large hail. The timing for this event would be a
complex of rain and thunderstorms entering Arkansas from Oklahoma
during near sunrise on Friday morning and push across the state from
northwest to southeast ahead and along the cold front during Friday
morning and into the early afternoon hours on Friday. Additional re-
development of a few isolated thunderstorms may occur using the
latest CAMS guidance; however this activity would be across far
southern Arkansas and push quickly into Louisiana and Mississippi by
late afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Overall, not many value added changes were made to the forecast
package this morning in spite of guidance deviating somewhat later
in the period. However, these changes will result in little change
to our sensible weather.

The period initiates with an amplified upper pattern in place. Upper
troughs will be over the Mississippi Valley into the mid south and
off the west coast. In between, an amplifying upper ridge will be
over the intermountain west.

On the surface, a slow moving boundary will finally be clearing the
state taking the majority of the precipitation with it. Lingering
showers can not be ruled out over the far southeast before surface
high pressure returns and becomes the dominant feature through the
weekend. A developing closed low over the Great lakes and the
western ridge will place the area in a pronounced northwest flow
aloft through the weekend with highs topping out in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Dew points will be low enough that a very pleasant weekend
is expected.

Southerly winds return Monday as the high begins to slip off to the
east and temperatures will begin to warm in response. Upper level
lows develop over the four corners and Ohio Valley early next week
with the CWA sort of stuck in between them to close out the period.
Moisture levels return enough that precipitation chances return as
early as Tuesday night over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

MVFR ceilings will clear across central and southern sections by
21z. TSRA will affect the forecast area during the last third of
the valid TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  62  74  54 /  20  30  70  40
Camden AR         83  63  79  58 /  30  10  70  70
Harrison AR       78  58  69  49 /  10  50  70  20
Hot Springs AR    83  61  77  55 /  10  20  80  50
Little Rock   AR  83  65  77  57 /  20  30  80  60
Monticello AR     83  66  83  62 /  50  10  80  80
Mount Ida AR      84  61  77  54 /  10  20  80  40
Mountain Home AR  79  58  70  50 /  20  40  70  30
Newport AR        81  64  75  56 /  30  30  70  50
Pine Bluff AR     83  65  80  59 /  40  20  80  70
Russellville AR   83  61  74  53 /  10  30  80  30
Searcy AR         82  62  75  56 /  20  30  80  50
Stuttgart AR      82  65  78  60 /  30  20  80  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...74